Who in Europe Is Playing Into Russia’s Hands: Why Serbia Is Just Part of a Bigger Problem

As the conflict in Ukraine continues to reshape European geopolitics, Russia has been actively seeking to exploit divisions within the European Union and its neighboring states. While much attention has focused on Serbia’s reluctance to join Western sanctions against Moscow, experts warn that Belgrade represents just one piece of a much larger puzzle. The Kremlin’s strategy of identifying and cultivating “weak links” across the continent poses a significant challenge to European unity and, by extension, to Ukraine’s security interests.

Russia’s approach to maintaining influence in Europe is multifaceted and deeply rooted in historical relationships, economic dependencies, and cultural ties that predate the current conflict. Serbia, with its traditional Orthodox Christian connections to Russia and lingering resentment over NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign during the Kosovo war, presents an obvious target for Moscow’s influence operations. However, the challenge extends far beyond the Balkans, touching countries from Hungary to Austria, and from Slovakia to Cyprus.

Serbia’s Delicate Balancing Act

Serbia occupies a unique position in European geopolitics, officially pursuing EU membership while simultaneously maintaining close ties with Moscow. The country has refused to impose sanctions on Russia despite pressure from Brussels, and continues to receive Russian gas at preferential rates. President Aleksandar Vučić has repeatedly stated that Serbia will not sacrifice its national interests to satisfy either East or West, a stance that has frustrated EU officials but resonated with a significant portion of the Serbian electorate. This balancing act reflects broader tensions within Europe itself, where energy dependencies and economic interests sometimes clash with stated political commitments.

The historical context is crucial for understanding Serbia’s position. The 1999 NATO intervention, conducted without UN Security Council approval, left deep psychological scars on Serbian society. Russia’s consistent support for Serbia on the Kosovo issue—including blocking Kosovo’s UN membership through its Security Council veto—has cemented a sense of gratitude and alliance that transcends mere political convenience. For many Serbians, Russia represents a protective power that stood by them when Western nations did not.

Beyond Belgrade: Russia’s European Network

While Serbia attracts the most attention, Russia’s influence network in Europe extends considerably further. Hungary under Viktor Orbán has consistently blocked or delayed EU sanctions packages and military aid to Ukraine, while maintaining energy agreements with Moscow. Slovakia’s political landscape has seen the rise of pro-Russian voices, and even within traditionally Western-aligned countries, populist movements often echo Kremlin talking points on issues ranging from NATO expansion to sanctions policy. Austria’s historical neutrality and significant Russian business interests create additional complications, as do Cyprus’s long-standing financial ties to Russian capital.

Energy dependency remains perhaps the most powerful lever in Russia’s toolkit. Despite efforts to diversify, several European nations remain significantly reliant on Russian energy supplies or the infrastructure built during decades of cooperation. This dependency creates economic pressure points that Moscow can exploit during political negotiations. The Nord Stream pipeline controversy demonstrated how energy infrastructure can become a geopolitical weapon, and many experts argue that Europe has not fully addressed its vulnerability in this regard.

Ukraine’s Strategic Response

For Ukraine, navigating this complex landscape requires sophisticated diplomacy and strategic foresight. Kyiv must work to strengthen relationships with its most reliable European partners while finding ways to address the concerns of more hesitant nations. This includes engaging directly with populations in countries where pro-Russian sentiment exists, countering disinformation, and demonstrating how Ukraine’s success aligns with broader European interests. Ukrainian diplomats have increasingly emphasized that the country’s fight is not just about territorial integrity but about defending the rules-based international order that benefits all European nations.

Experts suggest that Ukraine’s strategy should focus on several key areas: supporting independent media in countries vulnerable to Russian influence, building economic partnerships that create mutual interests, and working with EU institutions to address the structural vulnerabilities that Russia exploits. Additionally, Ukraine must continue demonstrating its commitment to European values and reforms, making the case for membership not as charity but as a mutually beneficial partnership.

The Path Forward for European Unity

The challenge of maintaining European unity in the face of Russian pressure campaigns will likely intensify as the conflict continues. Economic difficulties, migration pressures, and political polarization all create opportunities for external actors to sow division. However, experts note that awareness of these tactics has grown significantly since 2022, and European institutions have developed new tools for identifying and countering foreign interference. The key question is whether this awareness will translate into sustained political will across all member states and partners.